Nato looks to Baltic as proving ground for AI, crewless vessels

Nato says it is ready to deploy artificial intelligence and uncrewed vessels in the Baltic as part of its increasing efforts to detect the telltale activity that could indicate that a ship is preparing to damage undersea cables and pipelines.

The military alliance’s hope is that it can use software to process information from satellite imagery, sonar systems and underwater sensors to spot merchant vessels that appear to be acting erratically above undersea infrastructure.

The software, known as Mainsail (a backronym for Multi-Domain Awareness and Insight with AI Layering), has been developed in response to concerns that Russia is engaged in a campaign of damaging undersea infrastructure in and around Europe.

The most dramatic of example of an attack on undersea infrastructure was the 2022 sabatoge of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. The evidence there points to Ukraine, but similar incidents in which Moscow is implicated were recorded before then; in recent months, the number has increased rapidly. 

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In November and December of 2024 alone, three separate cables carrying internet data and power between in the Baltic, connecting five Nato members—Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania and Sweden—were severely damaged in incidents. 

In most incidents, the damaging vessel—Russian or otherwise—cannot be identified, just as it is impossible to ascertain whether the damage was intentional. Both are often due to a lack of information. As a result, Nato has increased its presence in the Baltic Sea. It is hoped that, where they cannot deter future attacks, they can at least help to clear up which vessel is at fault.

As part of this effort, it is incorporating autonomous vessels that will be able to conduct persistent surveillance over large areas.

Labelled Task Force X, all members of the alliance were invited on to take part, but the hope is that Baltic Rim states will be among those to take the lead.

Nato says the countries taking contributing to the initiative are free to deploy their own assets, making it a proving ground of sorts that puts emerging technologies into active service.

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