Unleash the lawyers Armed with regulations, coast guards are getting tough on the shadow fleet

Moscow has resumed shipments of crude oil from two Baltic Sea ports near St Petersburg after a drone attack damaged a loading facility at Primorsk on Sunday. A second facility, at Ust-Luga, was closed as a precaution but re-opened after authorities lifted an attack alert. The two ports are major outlets for Russian oil, and the attack was a part of Ukraine’s strategy of targeting oil refineries in order to disrupt Moscow’s war economy.

Countries of the Baltic Sea region would like to see traffic to and from Primorsk and Ust-Luga stopped as well—for the added reason that the 1,000 or so ships that Russia uses to transport the oil and other banned items are not seaworthy, and they fear they will cause an accident. They are also suspected of being used by Moscow to sabotage undersea infrastructure.

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But where Ukraine has the option of sending drones to accomplish its goals, Baltic Sea countries have had to tread more carefully for fear of provoking the Kremlin. That meant only stepping in when vessels posed an imminent danger, or when they were suspected of causing damage.

Now, though, their coast guards are becoming increasingly proactive. The Swedish coast guard, for example, boarded two vessels in a single week earlier this month. In one of the incidents, the captain was detained for “violating maritime code and the ship safety act, as well as the use of a forged document”. Those are hardly fighting words—but that is precisely the point.

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Keeping up with the Nordics Baltics staying the course against corruption

When it comes to corruption rankings, there are the Nordics and then there is everyone else. Again this year, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden ended in a log jam at the top of the Corruption Perceptions Index, an annual ranking of perceived corruption in the public sector. Germany rounded out the top 10. The Baltic states (Estonia: 12; Lithuania: 28th; Latvia: 37) are showing that despite some setbacks (including the resignation of Lithuania’s prime minister last year amid a corruption scandal), that they, too, take corruption seriously.

Transparency International, which has produced the report each year since 1995, cautions against easing up against corruption, even in the Nordic countries, but, in the Baltic region, the trends at least are with them: countries with the best records are generally democratic and highly digitalised.

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That will show the path for Poland (52). To be sure, it has shown improvement since PiS, an illiberal regime that dismembered the country’s civil-society infrastructure, was voted out of office in 2023, and it finds itself solidly in the top third of the table.

Progress, though, has been modest, due to what has been deemed insufficient efforts to undo the damage done by PiS. Russia (157) finished level with Chad, Honduras and Zimbabwe. An outlier in a sea of outliers.

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German gambit Seizing Russia’s shadow fleet

German customs authorities have confiscated the Eventin, a tanker linked to the Kremlin’s “shadow fleet”, along with its cargo of approximately 100,000 tons of crude oil. The ship was impounded in January and its seizure comes after the EU placed it on its sanctions list.

The seizure is a notable escalation in the enforcement of sanctions against Moscow’s attempts to get around restrictions on its oil trade. The “shadow fleet” of vessels flying flags other than the Russian is used to transport oil. It emerged shortly after Moscow’s unprovoked 2022 attack on Ukraine in response to Western sanctions against the Russian oil industry.

Recently the fleet’s role in wreaking havoc on subsea infrastructure has been getting a lot of attention. Environmentalists, for their part, fret that the ships are an oil spill waiting to happen; they are old, poorly kept and lack proper insurance. The Eventin was found floating adrift in January off the island of Rügen.

Germany’s seizure sends a message to Moscow and its cronies who help it to bypass sanctions. But Berlin must now carefully consider its next move: the confiscation order means that the vessel and its cargo now belong to the German state. Other countries in the Baltic will be keeping a close eye on what it does—and how the Kremlin reacts—to keep the shadow fleet in check.

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Nord Stream 2 revival met with Baltic chill

Germany and its Baltic allies have flatly rejected suggestions that delivery of Russian gas via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline may resume. Rumours that such a plan are afoot emerged on Sunday, when the Financial Times, a news outlet, reported that a former boss of Gazprom, the Russian firm that operated the pipeline, was working to revive the €11 billion project.

To its boosters, the pipeline running along the floor of the Baltic Sea was a sign that Russia was securely tethered to Europe and the west. Its detractors, both those who remained unconvinced that Moscow was indeed an ally, as well as greens agitating for lower, greener energy consumption, were never sold on the first Nord Stream, let alone its sequel.

But when both were damaged by sabotage in September 2022 (by whom remains unknown), European countries, and Germany in particular, rushed to break their energy ties to Russia: today, Norway is Germany’s primary gas supplier, and, on 8 February, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania broke a power connection to Russia that dates back to the Soviet Union when they connected themselves to the EU grid.

Nothing suggests anyone is interested going back. “Independence from Russian gas is of strategic importance,” the German economy ministry insisted in its denial that Berlin was talking to Moscow about re-opening Nord Stream 2. With Europeans now looking to secure their future, it would appear that the era of Russian gas has passed.

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Russian LNG plants halt exports as sanctions kick in

Two small-scale Russian producers of liquefied natural gas located on the shores of the Baltic Sea have suspended supplies, ship-tracking data showed on Thursday as US sanctions kicked in.

Washington last month introduced new sanctions against Russia in response to its unprovoked attack on Ukraine, including against the Portovaya LNG and Kryogaz-Vysotsk plants, with a grace period until 27 February.

Kryogaz-Vysotsk, controlled by Novatek and Gazprombank, last dispatched a cargo on 18 February, with delivery to Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal on 22 February, ship-tracking data show. The data also show that Portovaya LNG’s last cargo was delivered to customers in mid-January.

A tanker called Pearl, formerly known as Pskov, was last loaded with gas from Portovaya earlier this month and is anchored in the Gulf of Finland, along with the Velikiy Novgorod, a gas carrier that is also servicing the project.

Source: Reuters

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Russia expands Baltic ports as it eyes new grain markets

Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, is expanding its Baltic Sea ports as it aims to boost agricultural exports by 50% by 2030 while reducing dependence on traditional Black Sea routes, officials and executives said, Reuters, a news outlet, reports.

Baltic Sea ports loaded 1.5 million tons of grain last season, a three-fold increase from the previous season but still just 2.4% of overall Russian exports, according to Reuters calculations based on publicly available data.

“Logistically, the Baltic has many advantages for grains exports,” said Darya Snitko, vice president for Gazprombank, one of Russia’s largest banks and one of the biggest lenders to farmers.

She said the ability of Baltic terminals to handle bigger ships should help reduce overall costs.

Source: Reuters

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Denmark to enforce ban on Russian ships

Denmark will start enforcing EU sanctions that prevent 27 Russian ships from entering Danish waters or anchorage sites, according to new guidlines issued by Danpilot, the national pilotage service. The ban also applies to services like bunkering and ship supplies.

The measure comes after Brussels in June adopted its 14th round of sanctions against Moscow in response to its unprovoked attack on Ukraine. These latest sanctions target the growing “shadow fleet” Moscow is said to be using to transport oil in violation of previous sanctions. They mark a significant step in the EU’s efforts to the Kremlin to comply with sanctions.

The shadow fleet has reportedly expanded to include between 360 to 1,400 vessels, representing a substantial portion of the global tanker market. The ships, often old and with unclear insurance and ownership, have only limited ties to Moscow, raising serious environmental concerns, particularly in the ecologically sensitive Baltic Sea region.

Reports suggest that they had continued to access Danish anchorages, just as it is unclear whether Danish pilots have begun enforcing the ban, but Russian officials have warned of potential retaliatory measures in response the latest round of sanctions.

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This fleet’s existence underscores the challenges faced by the EU and its allies in curtailing Russia’s oil trade, which has been increasingly rerouted to the Kremlin’s allies amid tightening sanctions, indicating a shift in global trade patterns in response to sanctions.

Denmark’s geographical position makes it a crucial player in monitoring maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea, where a considerable volume of Russian oil passes through. Copenhagen is considering additional restrictions, motivated by the environmental risks posed by the vessels, but international maritime laws grant vessels the right to innocent passage, limiting its ability to enforce its ban without risking diplomatic tensions with Russia.

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